Sunday, September 24, 2017

Another Sunday spent shooting down Addazio's logic

I did not have time to watch the game back on Sunday, so grades will have to wait until Monday. In the meantime, here is another post on Addazio's losing logic...

I don't know what statistics and probability charts Addazio believes in but he could spend Monday talking about the correlation between winning and field position. And use that stat to justify punting from Clemson territory five times on Saturday. Aside from the correlation/causation issue with that, I will counter with the only statistics that truly matters are points. BC only scored seven and that was because Addazio was content to punt away possession rather than risk giving Clemson better field position. You cannot beat anyone -- let alone a Top 5 team on the road -- only scoring seven points.

After I tweeted about the bad logic of punting there were a few responses that also pointed me towards some data. One was a good series on expected value given location. In laymen's terms, what that means is that every yard has an EV for scoring. Know what has a terrible EV? Punting from anywhere. Punting waves the white flag and keeps BC from scoring.

The other problem with punting when not scoring is that BC's Defense does not employ Spaz's old bend-but-don't-break. When you play a base D like Spaz's old squads, forcing a QB to go 95 yards without making a mistake had some statistical validity. While not exactly Don Brown, BC is still aggressive on D. That aggressiveness is in place whether we have a team pinned back or if we are in our own territory. So a big play can happen and will probably lead to an opponent's score. I like the aggressive D and don't wish to go back. But I wish our Head Coach adjusted his O to the new reality. He needs to score and forget about field position.

Here are some other stats or facts that will frustrate BC fans:

-- BC is currently 115 in Punts per Offensive Score at 2.8.
-- Mike Knoll is second in most punts with 33.
-- Addazio still only has one second half comeback while coach at BC.

20 comments:

modest34b said...

BC is #128 (out of 130) in rushing defense. #115 in total offense.

BC is last in the ACC or close to last in a big pile of offense and defense stats .

I could not find a stat for really, really sucking in the the 4th Q, but i am sure BC must be notable for that one.

it is a shit show. No lipstick for this pig.

Nonetheless, i do think our young QB has a lot of talent. I think he will be good - next year.

The defense has simply fallen off the cliff.... #128 in rush defense. No team in memory has fallen so far and so fast.

BC is terrible at O and D. but Our special teams is much improved.

Fire Daz now or Fire Daz in December. either is fine.

bceagle91 said...

Our punting game has gotten much better. Practice makes perfect. Or at least a lot better. We no longer seem to bring the excitement back to the extra point, but since we seem to have given up scoring for Lent (so to speak), it's hard to say.

As to firing Daz now, I'm not sure I fully buy the explanation of keeping him to keep the recruits. I would hope the recruits would be smart enough to know we would be trying to improve the team. What I would say is that we should only fire him now if (1) we have an assistant who Jarmond feels is worth an audition as head coach or (2) if our best choice is currently looking for work.

It seems pretty clear that (1) is not the case here. Regarding (2), obviously there's a lot of chatter about Chip Kelly. I'm not convinced he can do much in October to right the ship. Thus, there's really no harm in waiting until December, sounding him out and seeing who else may become available.

The $7.5 million we still owe Daz after this season needs to be viewed by Fr. Leahy as a sunk cost. That money is gone. The question isn't whether we can afford to hire a new coach. It's whether we can afford not to. And on a lesser scale, this discussion will probably come up with respect to men's basketball. Ever to excel? At this point, I'd settle for mediocrity as an intermediate step.

Geezer eagle said...

Until Daz is gone, my BC shirts stay in the bottom of the draw. I'm too embarrassed to wear them. It's not the kids themselves, it's the administration refusing to do anything about the systemic problem of constant losing.

eagletix said...

We are talking about a coach, who in commenting about a game last year, said he felt he had a greater chance of winning with his DEFENSE on the field.
There is nothing I can add to that.

Unknown said...

Anyone notice Duke (YES DUKE) is 4-0 beat NC 27-17.

Our less than a CYO coach is headed for ZERO for the ACC.

HOW about suing him for INCOMPETENCE ? PRETENDING to be a coach !!!!!!!

knucklehead said...

I commented early in the game that "we wanted to keep the game close going into the fourth quarter" . . . Speaking on behalf of Dazzler as a joke. In fact that is exactly what the thought process was based on the fact that the team folded in the fourth quarter and by the fact that Jarmond "dropped" that during the sideline interview in the second half(which I was completely unimpressed by).

As a coach or manager you do not tell your people to expect anything less than a win.

Jarmond is in cahoots with Dazzler. Two bitches in a pod based on the links between Dazzlers comments and Jarmonds comments on the slideline. The two of them are probably grousing with each other about what Boston College isn't(Florida or Ohio State) more than what it is.

Should have hired a BC grad to be the AD.



knucklehead said...

ATL,
In all honesty. Thank you for keeping this blog up and running the way it is.

There is no coverage in Boston sports talk radio and barebones-real bare bones coverage in the Boston Globe.

Also, I cannot watch a show on TV without politics being brought into sports. Between the Red Sox racism crap at the beginning of the season to the racism banner a few weeks ago to the Kapernick bullshit and now the Trump bullshit. On top of that the NFL games are being broadcast in espanol for political reasons.

It is good to have a source where none of that is included.

JBQ said...

@knucklehead: You have hit on something. There has to be a connection between Jarmond and the Dazzler. I am looking for Jarmond to give him one more year with benchmarks. Wouldn't that be a "keg of fish"? ---By the way, our future NFL whiz kid has at least one "baby mama". He has a son for whom he now has to support and is looking for the NFL to provide the income. Comments were made during the game by the announcers.--These are future money makers that leaches in the poor community latch on to provide them a secure lifestyle for the rest of their life. This is a "rite of passage" for players in the big time money sports.

Unknown said...

Addazio is 1-27 when trailing at halftime.

Unknown said...
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Unknown said...

Look how great the BC defense played when Landry was able to play for most of the game. Landry should be playing almost every defensive snap, he’s a senior and wants to make name for himself. Landry should be a full time defender; NOT A SPECIALIST!

MattBC03 said...

Other item that may frustrate you:

Addazio is 10-24 in ACC play, including 0-16 vs FSU, Louisville, Clemson, UNC, Georgia Tech, Duke and Pitt. So 7 out of 13 teams he is winless.

John said...

Who was the lone victory over out of 28 when trailing at halftime!

So much for dragging the opponent into the 4th quarter. It's all bul€s£it.

There has to be an end somewhere.

We can pay Addazio to go away. Or we can pay him to lead us to maybe a couple of ACC wins over the next 3 years.

TGS said...

I received this text from a non BC alum friend this AM. This is what people think of BC now. Nuff said:

Matter of time before they are back playing holy cross and Colgate.

MattBC03 said...

Well ironically we do play Holy Cross next year

BC 86 said...

Not into moral victories and agree with you all, , but at the game in Clemson in 4th quarter tied was awesome, not colgate, not flutie years either , yes my expectations were lowered....

Napolean Bonaparte said...

We needed that win so much. Desperate times require desperate measures. Surprised Addazio and his OC didn't throw caution to the wind much more than they did on offense. What the heck did they have to lose?

Navillus said...
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modest34b said...

BC has its own home grown SOB tonight's game (which i refuse to watch)

"The Cardinals lined up along the goal line of the southern end zone as Jordin Sparks sang the national anthem behind them. Some players linked arms. Some put their hands on the shoulders of teammates. Defensive tackle Frostee Rucker and tight end Ifeanyi Momah kept their helmets on."

EagleEye2002 said...
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